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Forex multi-account manager Z-X-N
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In the financial investment sector, the difficulty of achieving profitability varies significantly across different trading instruments. The two-way trading model of foreign exchange investment places particularly stringent demands on participants' professional expertise and risk management, making profitability far more challenging than stock and futures trading.
Statistical data on market profit distribution shows that the stock market generally follows the "80/20 rule," meaning approximately 20% of investors achieve profits, while the remaining 80% face losses. Profit distribution in the futures market is more concentrated, essentially conforming to the "90/10 rule," with only around 10% of investors achieving consistent profits, while 90% struggle to escape losses. In contrast, the profit structure in the foreign exchange market is even more extreme, almost exhibiting a "99/10 rule." Less than 1% of investors can achieve stable, long-term profits in the forex market, while the remaining 99% of participants often become mere contributors to market profits. This discrepancy in data clearly demonstrates the extreme difficulty of achieving long-term profitability in the foreign exchange market. For ordinary investors lacking professional knowledge, systematic strategies, and risk tolerance, forex investment is a field rife with pitfalls, and they are likely to be among the 99% who lose money.
From the perspective of the external market environment, for nearly two decades, the central banks of the world's major currency-issuing countries, driven by the core objectives of maintaining national economic stability, financial system stability, and foreign trade stability, have monitored exchange rate fluctuations in real time and, when necessary, intervened to maintain exchange rates within a relatively narrow fluctuation range by regulating market liquidity, adjusting interest rate policies, or directly participating in foreign exchange transactions. This central bank intervention has resulted in a lack of clear and sustained price trends in the foreign exchange market, with prices increasingly exhibiting range-bound fluctuations. This has undoubtedly made it extremely difficult for investors to capture significant fluctuations and achieve high returns through short-term trading. Short-term traders struggle to develop effective trading strategies based on clear trend signals, further increasing the uncertainty of profitability.
In terms of forex trading strategies, some traders question the classic "buy low, sell high" logic. These traders primarily rely on short-term trading, which, in essence, resembles gambling, relying more on the randomness of short-term price fluctuations for profit than on in-depth analysis of market fundamentals and technicals. The core reason why short-term traders struggle to adopt long-term trading strategies lies in the limitations of retail investors. Since short-term positions are held for only a few minutes or even hours, investors are vulnerable to short-term market fluctuations and consequently face unrealized losses. Constrained by both time constraints and psychological pressure, retail investors lack the patience and fortitude required to hold positions long-term. They often rush to execute stop-loss orders out of fear of losses, even before a clear market trend emerges, before unrealized losses reach the stop-loss threshold, or before a rebound appears possible. This frequent stop-loss trading pattern prevents retail investors from fully understanding the trend-following and value-judgment logic behind the "buy low, buy low, sell high; sell high, sell high, buy low" principle. This prevents them from developing a trading strategy that aligns with market principles, ultimately leading them to be eliminated by the market through repeated losses. In stark contrast, those who successfully maintain a long-term presence in the forex market and achieve stable profits are professionals who have a deep understanding of the core principles of these classic trading rules and are able to flexibly apply them to market realities. These professionals possess a systematic trading system, strict discipline, and strong mental resilience, enabling them to seize genuine trading opportunities in complex and volatile market environments.
Further analysis reveals the underlying reasons why short-term trading is incompatible with long-term strategies. Beyond the superficial factor of short position holding periods, a more crucial factor is that short-term traders' profit expectations and risk tolerance are mismatched with those of long-term strategies. Short-term traders pursue quick profits in the short term, have low profit margin expectations for each trade, and have a very low tolerance for short-term unrealized losses. Once unrealized losses occur, they are prone to anxiety, leading to irrational stop-loss decisions. Long-term strategies, on the other hand, require investors to have a long-term perspective and be able to withstand the floating losses caused by short-term price fluctuations, waiting for market trends to fully unfold and unlock greater profit potential. This requires a deeper understanding of the market and stronger confidence. Short-term traders, lacking this long-term perspective and unwavering confidence, lack the time to wait for a trend reversal or continuation, nor the patience to stick to their trading plans, and are forced to quickly exit the market with stop-loss orders. This trading habit prevents them from truly understanding the principle of "buy low, buy low, sell high; sell high, sell high, buy low." They are unable to reap the benefits of trend-driven long-term holdings and ultimately, their frequent short-term trading consumes transaction costs, accumulates losses, and is forced to exit the forex market. Therefore, investors who can consistently survive and profit in the forex market must truly understand and master scientific trading strategies. Those who fail to overcome the limitations of short-term trading and establish sound trading knowledge will ultimately struggle to maintain a long-term presence in the forex market, even if they achieve occasional short-term gains.
In the two-way trading system of forex investment, the depth of a trader's understanding of the nature of trading directly determines their operational logic and ultimate returns. If one can clearly distinguish the core differences between "forex investment trading" and "fishing," one will have a preliminary grasp of the underlying principles of forex trading.
From a behavioral perspective, fishing follows the principle of "small investment, big return." By investing a small amount of bait (a low cost), the goal is to catch a higher-value fish (a high return). This low-investment, high-anticipation model aligns with the traditional understanding of "return." However, forex investment trading is precisely the opposite. Its essence is "big investment, small return." It requires traders to maintain a relatively stable capital structure and rigorous risk control, aiming to capture relatively certain small market fluctuations or long-term trends to achieve reasonable returns, rather than pursuing large returns with a small amount of capital. This core logic, contrary to traditional understanding, is the key to the initial misconceptions of many traders.
For retail investors with small capital in the forex market, a key cause of long-term losses is the entrenched "fishing for a small profit" mentality, equating forex trading with "expensively seeking high returns with a small investment." This leads them to neglect risk management and blindly pursue short-term profits. By proactively breaking this cognitive inertia, re-establishing an understanding of the essence of "big-risk-small" trading, and adjusting trading strategies in line with market dynamics, they may be able to effectively reduce the frequency of losses and even gradually achieve break-even or even stable profits. However, this requires abandoning the speculative mindset of short-term trading and shifting to a long-term investment model more aligned with the characteristics of the forex market. Short-term trading is highly sensitive to market fluctuations and vulnerable to the uncertainties brought about by external intervention. Long-term investment, on the other hand, better leverages long-term market trends, mitigates short-term volatility risks, and aligns with the fundamental logic of forex trading: "big-risk-small."
From the perspective of the external market environment, over the past two decades, central banks in the issuing countries of major global foreign exchange currencies have consistently prioritized maintaining national economic stability, financial system stability, and foreign trade stability. They have intervened in exchange rates through real-time monitoring of currency exchange rate fluctuations and the flexible use of monetary policy tools (such as regulating market liquidity, adjusting benchmark interest rates, and directly participating in foreign exchange market transactions), striving to keep currency exchange rate fluctuations within a relatively narrow range. This regular central bank intervention has directly led to the lack of a clear and sustained medium-term trend in the foreign exchange market. Large, one-way movements are extremely rare, and the market is more likely to fluctuate within a range. This market characteristic makes it significantly more difficult for short-term traders to profit from short-term fluctuations. The "clear short-term trends" or "sudden, large movements" that short-term trading relies on have become extremely scarce due to central bank intervention, increasing the probability of operational errors.
In the past decade, short-term trading activity in the global foreign exchange market has further declined, and the market has generally remained relatively quiet. The core reason is the significant decrease in the number of short-term traders, but the underlying reason is still closely related to central bank policies and market trends. Over the past decade, central banks in most major economies around the world have generally implemented low or even negative interest rate policies to stimulate the economy and combat deflation. Furthermore, interest rates in major currencies have been deeply tied to those of the US dollar, keeping interest rate differentials extremely low. This has resulted in relatively stable value differences between currencies, making it difficult for them to become a core driver of significant exchange rate fluctuations. This interest rate environment has further compressed the trend potential in the foreign exchange market, causing currency exchange rates to fluctuate within a narrow range for extended periods. Short-term traders have struggled to find profitable trading opportunities, and short-term trading has essentially become a speculative act reliant on luck rather than a rational approach based on market principles. This has led more and more traders to abandon short-term strategies and adopt long-term strategies.
Even if forex traders choose a light-weight, long-term strategy that aligns with market characteristics, they still face the two human weaknesses of greed and fear—key variables that influence trading decisions. If a long-term position is overweight, an unexpected short-term market pullback can quickly escalate unrealized losses, triggering fear and leading traders to abandon their long-term strategies and exit the market prematurely. Conversely, when the market trend is in line with expectations and the account is profitable, overweight positions can exacerbate greed, prompting traders to prematurely take profits and miss out on subsequent gains. Therefore, experienced forex investors often choose to spread their positions along the market's moving average (a key indicator of long-term market trends). This strategy not only reduces the influence of greed on decision-making during periods of significant market growth and rising unrealized profits, but also prevents the pursuit of short-term gains from changing long-term strategies. Furthermore, during periods of significant market pullbacks and unrealized losses, a small position can help control individual trade risk and mitigate the psychological pressure of fear. This allows traders to maintain a stable mindset and a consistent trading rhythm amidst market fluctuations, ensuring the effective execution of their long-term strategies.
From a profit-generating perspective, traders deploying a large, light position in the direction of market trends not only aims to control risk but also to truly achieve "letting profits run"—a core principle in forex trading. Within this strategic framework, "holding losses" is more practical than "cutting losses." Because long-term strategies rely on the long-term market trend, short-term drawdowns are a normal part of the trend. Blindly cutting losses due to short-term losses could result in missing out on the gains of subsequent trends. By maintaining a light position, holding losses is essentially a firm commitment to the long-term trend and embodies the trading principle of "risking small with big gains"—using manageable short-term losses to secure the guaranteed gains of the long-term trend. Furthermore, this strategy of diversifying and maintaining light positions effectively balances the effects of fear and greed. During a pullback, light positions limit losses, mitigating fear. During a trend extension, diversifying positions prevents excessive gains in a single position from triggering greed, allowing traders to focus more on the trend itself rather than short-term account fluctuations.
Furthermore, forex traders adopting a long-term, light-weight strategy—gradually building positions in line with market trends, increasing them in stages, and steadily accumulating positions—has significant practical significance. From a risk management perspective, gradual position building and increasing positions avoids the concentrated risk associated with a single, heavy investment. Through a "trial-and-error-verify-and-increase" cycle, positions are aligned with the trend. From a psychological perspective, this steady accumulation helps traders gradually adapt to market fluctuations, cultivate confidence in long-term trends, and mitigate the emotional impact of short-term fluctuations. From a profit accumulation perspective, the gains from long-term trends are continuously amplified through gradually accumulated positions, while risks remain manageable, truly achieving the robust profit logic of "taking the big for the small." Ultimately, this strategy not only helps traders mitigate the fear of unrealized losses during trend pullbacks and the greed of unrealized gains during extended periods, but also helps them achieve long-term survival and sustainable development in the complex and volatile forex market, gradually approaching the goal of stable profits.
From the perspective of both trading psychology and profit stability, forex traders can develop a dual defense mechanism against fear and greed by maintaining numerous long-term, small positions. First, this small position structure keeps the potential loss of each trade within a manageable range. Even if the market experiences short-term adverse fluctuations, the overall account loss is limited, effectively alleviating fear and preventing irrational stop-loss orders. Second, this diversified, small position structure mitigates the psychological impact of excessive unrealized profits in a single position. When some positions experience significant unrealized profits, traders avoid blindly increasing their positions or prematurely taking profits out of greed. Instead, they can adhere to a long-term strategy and allow profits to grow naturally with the market trend. This strategy not only helps traders maintain a stable psychological state over the long term and reduce the influence of emotions on decision-making, but also allows them to gradually accumulate profits through the accumulation of small victories amidst market fluctuations. This is because a long-term, small position strategy does not pursue short-term profits, but relies on long-term market trends to achieve sustained and stable returns. This aligns closely with the fundamental principle of forex trading, "risking small gains with big ones," and is a key path for traders to achieve long-term success in the forex market.
In the two-way trading system of forex investment, stop-loss and compound interest are two core concepts frequently mentioned by traders. Their connotations and practical value vary significantly depending on the trader's operating model, holding period, and risk appetite. Only by deeply analyzing the applicable scenarios and underlying logic of each from multiple perspectives can we avoid cognitive misunderstandings and ensure that trading decisions are more aligned with market trends and individual strategic positioning.
In terms of the understanding and application of stop-loss, "stop-loss is a must" has become a mantra for many traders in the forex market. This constant emphasis on the operational logic of stop-loss is essentially a typical characteristic of high-frequency short-term traders. This phenomenon stems from the inherent needs of the short-term trading model——High-frequency short-term trading relies on short-term market fluctuations to gain profits. The holding time is usually measured in minutes or hours, and is often accompanied by a higher trading frequency. Short-term market fluctuations are greatly affected by accidental factors such as news and liquidity, and price trends are highly random. If the loss of a single transaction is not controlled by strict stop-loss, a single large fluctuation may wipe out multiple short-term profits. Therefore, stop-loss has become the "standard configuration" for high-frequency short-term traders to resist risks and maintain account survival. This operating logic is highly compatible with their trading model and there is no need to question it too much. However, it should be noted that if this "must stop loss" thinking is directly applied to long-term investment scenarios, logical dislocations may occur. Some traders who think they are adopting long-term strategies actually choose to use a heavy position layout method. In essence, it is difficult for such traders to truly practice the long-term investment concept. Because in the heavy position building mode, the account is extremely sensitive to market fluctuations. Even if the market has a normal pullback in line with the long-term trend, the short-term floating loss may exceed the account's tolerance limit, resulting in large losses or even margin calls before completing the long-term position layout. In the end, they "die" before the trend unfolds. It can be seen that the necessity and execution method of stop loss must be coordinated with the trading cycle and position management, rather than generalized.
Regarding the discussion context and practical value of compound interest, the forex market also contains a group of traders who constantly discuss compound interest. These traders are often "analyst-style" theoretical participants. Their overemphasis on compound interest often deviates from the core premise of actual trading: the essence of compound interest is the "continuous accumulation of profits." If traders cannot achieve stable and sustained profits, or even experience frequent losses over a multi-year trading cycle, then the discussion of compound interest loses its practical basis and becomes purely theoretical. For example, if a trader's annual returns fluctuate significantly, with some years profitable and others losing, or even if the losses in losing years exceed those in profitable years, then even if compounding gains in profitable years is calculated, the subsequent losses will significantly offset them, making it difficult to effectively accumulate returns. In contrast, traders who truly commit to long-term investment prioritize cultivating a "long-term and stable" trading mindset rather than dwelling on the theoretical calculations of compounding. The core of long-term investment is to rely on long-term market trends, using a light-weight, gradual accumulation approach to smooth out short-term volatility risks, and achieve steady growth while ensuring account viability. With this mindset, compounding becomes a natural outcome of long-term, stable profits, rather than a slavish pursuit. Therefore, for most traders who haven't yet achieved consistent profits, rather than frequently discussing the mathematical logic of compounding, it's better to focus on refining their trading systems and cultivating a long-term investment mindset. Only by addressing the prerequisite of "consistent profitability" can the value of compounding truly be realized.
Furthermore, the difference in perceptions of stop-loss orders and compounding reflects the depth of a trader's understanding of the "risk-return balance." High-frequency, short-term traders emphasize stop-loss orders because their strategies rely on short-term fluctuations. They need to use stop-loss orders to keep their "single risk" within a manageable range to account for the randomness of short-term fluctuations. Long-term traders, on the other hand, who employ a light-weight approach, already mitigate the impact of a single fluctuation on their accounts through position control. In these situations, stop-loss orders are more relevant for responding to extreme situations like "trend reversals" rather than short-term, normal drawdowns. Blindly applying short-term stop-loss logic can lead to premature exits before the trend ends, missing out on subsequent gains. Similarly, achieving compound interest requires not only sustained profits but also "sustained profits with manageable risk." If one expands positions and ignores risk in pursuit of compound interest, even if high returns are achieved in the short term, a single extreme market oscillation can wipe out the account, completely eliminating the foundation for compound interest accumulation. Therefore, mature forex traders don't fall into a simplistic, "black or white" view of stop-loss and compounding. Instead, they dynamically adjust their application based on their own trading cycles (short-term or long-term), position strategies (heavy or light), and profit stability. They make stop-loss a risk control tool rather than a constraint, and compounding a natural outcome of long-term, stable profits rather than a deliberate goal. Ultimately, they achieve a deep alignment between their trading strategies, market dynamics, and their own abilities.
In two-way forex trading, if traders want to benefit from the experience of successful traders, they must undergo rigorous verification and practical training, truly transforming this experience into their own knowledge and skills. This can be considered a correct and effective learning method.
While the experience of successful traders is valuable, it is difficult to truly understand and absorb without personal experience. Just as an 80-year-old shares experiences like blurred vision with a 20-year-old, the younger person, lacking the relevant experience, often struggles to grasp and understand. Only when they reach their 50s and experience these experiences firsthand can they truly digest and comprehend the experience. Similarly, the experiences shared by successful forex traders can only truly benefit beginners who are willing to proactively verify and put them into practice. This learning process doesn't require decades of waiting, as with experiencing blurred vision. As long as beginners are diligent and take immediate action, they can quickly experience and validate these experiences. After all, practice is the only criterion for testing truth, and through hands-on experience, traders can quickly grasp key insights.
In forex trading, minimizing losses primarily relies on technical analysis and precise operation, while achieving substantial profits relies more on a positive mindset and accurate market understanding. As for career growth and wealth accumulation, these are influenced to a certain extent by fate and luck. These factors need to be verified and mastered through practice. While luck itself may seem untrainable, it's proven that the more practice a trader acquires, the more accurate their understanding of the market becomes, and their luck seems to improve. Better luck increases the chances of profit, and thus, their fortunes improve. Ultimately, when traders achieve financial freedom, the power of money not only grants them greater freedom of choice but also allows them to be more composed in the face of choices, allowing them to "do nothing if they don't want to."
In the two-way trading of forex, traders should avoid choosing theoretical analysts as mentors. Theoretical economists, university professors, finance lecturers, forex trading trainers, or forex trading analysts often lack practical experience and are only good at theoretical theory.
They lack real-world experience and therefore lack a deep understanding of the true market dynamics. In contrast, the experience and insights of investors who engage in real-world forex trading on the front lines are far more valuable. These experienced investors can provide valuable, practical advice, helping beginners better navigate the complexities of the market.
Forex trading theory is constantly evolving. Emerging monetary policies, such as zero and negative interest rates, have fundamentally changed the methods, strategies, and techniques used in forex trading. However, theoretical and armchair experts often remain oblivious to these changes, lacking practical experience to understand the impact of these subtle changes on actual trading. For example, low, zero, and even negative interest rates have led to a gradual decline in the use of breakout trading strategies in the forex market. The core reason is that the trend nature of forex currencies has significantly weakened. Major central banks around the world have maintained exchange rate fluctuations within a narrow range by implementing low (or even negative) interest rates or frequently intervening in exchange rates. Since the bankruptcy of FX Concepts, a global forex fund, fund managers specializing in forex have virtually disappeared, further demonstrating the lack of a clear trend in forex currencies. This lack of a trend negates the fundamental basis for breakout trading strategies. Currently, forex currencies are more prone to consolidation, making sustained trends difficult, making breakout trading strategies ineffective.
Regrettably, however, few theoretical experts—economists, university professors, finance lecturers, forex investment and trading trainers, or forex investment and trading analysts—have spoken out to discourage forex traders from excessive short-term trading. They also rarely point out the reality that short-term trading is difficult to profit from. Consequently, waves of short-term traders enter the forex market, only to leave after suffering losses. Fortunately, however, many forex traders have been awakened by persistent losses and realized the unworkability of short-term trading. Today, the number of short-term forex traders is dwindling, and the global forex market is quiet. This is precisely the reason for the sharp decline in the number of short-term traders.
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+86 137 1158 0480
z.x.n@139.com
Mr. Z-X-N
China · Guangzhou